The Scientific Method

One of the good things about science is that it must remain constantly aware that at any time it could be taken in by self-deception. That makes up for all the people and other laboratory animals that it’s killed. Okay, what that really means is that scientists cannot rely on gut feelings or insight. All that counts when you are publishing a scientific paper is solid data that has been tested many times under a wide variety of conditions.

You and I, as individuals can believe in ghosts because we have seen them or in palm reading because we’ve had them done and they were uncannily accurate, but scientists have to be able to prove what they tell us in the same way that they can prove that a bear shits in the woods. This kind of evidence is not available after psychic or tarot readings and dowsing for water. People go along with the reading or the downsing and say they have seen evidence when they really haven’t.

Here’s a quote from Neurologica Blog:

How, then, do believers defend their belief in phrenology, astrology, palmistry, iridology, or other such pseudoscience? Often the answer is simply, “I have seen it work.” They believe they have seen the method they employ work, and therefore the underlying principles must be true, no matter how much they appear to contradict established science. What true believers in such pseudosciences fail to appreciate is the basic skeptical principle that people are easily deceived, especially by themselves. The illusion of accuracy produced by cold reading often fools not only the client, but the reader as well, reinforced by each client who gushes over how accurate the readings were.

This principle is convincingly demonstrated by a classic tale told by psychologist and CSI fellow, Ray Hyman. As a youth he took up the practice of palmistry to make some extra money. He did not really believe in palm reading, but was amazed at the apparent accuracy of his readings, simply by following, cook book style, the formula in a standard handbook of palmistry. Before long he was convinced of palmistry’s fantastic power to penetrate the deepest secrets of his clients.

But Ray Hyman also had a scientific curiosity, an apparent rarity among palm readers. He decided to conduct a simple experiment to test the efficacy of palm reading. He began giving his clients the exact opposite reading as dictated by the handbook. To his surprise, his clients still claimed that his readings were amazingly accurate and were pleased with the results, to no less degree than when the “correct” readings were given. Dr. Hyman had discovered the power of cold reading and confirmation bias which lay behind palmistry.

Here is a simple exposition of the scientific method: